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SUMMARY:2025 Spring KWEN Mentor-Mentee Seminar
DESCRIPTION:2025 Spring KWEN Mentor-Mentee Seminar\nDate & Time: Jun 5, 2025 08:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)\n\nSpeaker: Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan (Brown University, CEPR, and NBER)\nDiscussant: Professor Hyunju Lee (University of Houston)\nLink: https://cau.zoom.us/j/88227588201?pwd=K54xJTrYmX7PoTx1fcMYRHTsYFQEQs.1\nMeeting ID: 882 2758 8201\nPasscode: 086990\n\n\nTitle: Global Networks, Monetary Policy and Trade\nAbstract: We develop a novel framework to study the interaction between monetary policy and trade. Our New Keynesian open economy model incorporates international production networks, sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidities, and trade distortions. We decompose the general equilibrium response to trade shocks into distinct channels that account for demand shifts, policy effects, exchange rate adjustments, expectations, price stickiness, and input–output linkages. Tariffs act simultaneously as demand and supply shocks, leading to endogenous fragmentation through changes in trade and production network linkages. We show that the net impact of tariffs on domestic inflation, output, employment, and the dollar depends on the endogenous monetary policy response in both the tariff-imposing and tariff-exposed countries, within a global general equilibrium framework. Our quantitative exercise replicates the observed effects of the 2018 tariffs on the U.S. economy and predicts a 1.6 pp decline in U.S. output, a 0.8pp rise in inflation, and a 4.8% appreciation of the dollar in response to a retaliatory\ntrade war linked to tariffs announced on “Liberation Day.” Tariff threats, even in the absence of actual implementation, are self-defeating—leading to a 4.1% appreciation of the dollar, 0.6% deflation, and a 0.7 pp decline in output, as agents re-optimize in anticipation of future distortions. Dollar appreciates less or even can depreciate under retaliation, tariff threats, and increased global uncertainty.\n
URL:https://kaea.org/events/seminars/kwen/2025-spring-kwen-mentor-mentee-seminar/
CATEGORIES:Seminars,KWEN
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